Negative = LP profited. Front-loaded signal (big at t+5s, fades) = oracle latency arb. Back-loaded (grows) = informed trading.
Decomposes backstop TVL change into LVR (backstop share of spread income − adverse selection), inventory P&L (price moves on pool surpluses), protocol fee (transferred to treasury per swap, varies by chain — leaves the system), and net deposits. Identity: ΔTVL = backstop_LVR + Inventory − ProtocolFee + Net Deposits.